Energy Transitions

June 27, 2016

According to Vaclav Smil, anything below 5% of global total primary energy supply (TPES) can be considered a marginal energy source.

Using this marker, today we have the following energy sources that can be considered non-marginal:

Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear

Currently, wind is at 1.24% and solar at 0.25% of global TPES, thus both are deep into marginal territory.

Energy transitions take time and the number of years required to reach penetration thresholds tend to increase with each newer energy source.*

The reasons are mainly these:

The larger the overall energy market, the bigger the absolute amounts of energy the new source needs to supply.
The advantages of subsequent energy sources keep diminishing. In particular: coal is much better than wood. Oil is better than coal in transportation uses. Natural gas is only better than oil in say, stationary uses like space heating, industrial processes or electricity generation. Yes, the new kid in town, natural gas, is projected to grow faster than coal and oil but it's increase in market share will be gradual.

With respect to the other two non marginal energy sources, this is the outlook:

Hydro: although in absolute terms it will continue to grow, it's market share has practically maxed out and it may soon begin to drop.
Nuclear: it has reached a plateau and even though lately it is undergoing a sort of renaissance, its future growth will almost certainly be much slower than that of natural gas from 1930 onward. If it's growth were half that of natural gas (in market share) then it would take ~110 years to reach 25% of TPES.

What about the marginal energy sources?

They still have to reach the 5% threshold and that may be decades away if they ever reach it at all.

Conclusion: our civilization will continue to primarily depend on fossil fuels for its energy needs. As of this moment, nuclear seems to be the only non fossil fuel that could conceivable capture 25% of the market in 100 years or so.

Feel free to add to the conversation in Twitter: @luisbaram

*Chart from: Natural Gas, Fuel for the 21st Century by Vaclav Smil

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